PetsSafeJuly4

While Fourth of July is a time of celebration for Americans, man’s best friend may be at increased risk for injury and illness over the holiday.

Veterinary Pet Insurance Co shares the most common Fourth of July related pet injuries based on its database of more than 525,000 insured pets.

Pets are at risk for a number of firework-related injuries. Common injuries include: burns; strangulation from getting a collar caught on a fence or jumping a fence due to the loud noise of fireworks; and laceration from breaking through a glass window or fence. Average costs for treatment run upward from $355.

Other common holiday-related injuries/illness include heat stroke, drowning after falling in a pool and poisoning from eating chocolate or table scraps and ingesting alcohol.

VPI suggests pet owners plan ahead with the following tips to keep our furry friends safe during the holiday weekend:

  1. Set up a safe zone for your pet and never leave your pet unattended or tied up in the back yard.
  2. Leave out extra water bowls to ensure your pet stays hydrated and be aware of foods that could be toxic to your dog.
  3. Be mindful of your dog around a pool and if they are allowed to swim, make sure they’re a comfortable swimmer and know how to get out of the pool.

The American Kennel Club makes the point that it’s safer to keep your pets at home during Fourth of July celebrations instead of bringing them to your neighbor’s party. Keeping your pet in a safe room where he/she is comfortable can reduce stress from the noise of fireworks.

Have a safe and happy Fourth of July!

The Chinese insurance market is changing as quickly as any in the world, writes Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) chief actuary James Lynch.

China is the fourth largest insurance market, behind the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom, but it is poised to grow quickly as the government looks to insurance to “play a larger role in the country’s patchy social welfare system,” the Financial Times reports (subscription required).

The market may be best known for buying trophy properties worldwide. In the past two years, Anbang bought New York’s Waldorf Astoria, China Life bought a majority share of London’s Canary Wharf, and Ping An bought the home of insurance, the Lloyd’s Building of London.

Beyond the property plays, Fosun Group in May agreed to buy the 80 percent of property/casualty insurer Ironshore that it doesn’t own and Fosun’s acquisition of U.S. p/c insurer Meadowbrook Insurance Group just received state regulatory approvals in Michigan and California.

The Financial Times report focuses on changes in the life sector, as the Chinese government encourages citizens to buy traditional life products and 401(k)-like pensions, but the P/C market is changing as well, as I recently wrote for the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS):

China’s market has grown between 13 and 35 percent a year for the past decade . . . Property/casualty insurers wrote RMB 754 billion ($120 billion in U.S. dollars) of premium in 2014, 16.4 percent more than a year earlier. By contrast, U.S. property/casualty insurers wrote about $500 billion and grew just over 4 percent, with both figures reflecting the maturity of the U.S. market.”

Starting June 1, six provinces – about one-fifth of the country – overhauled the way auto insurance is priced, moving a bit closer to the U.S. model of loading expected claim costs for expenses and adjusting rates for underwriting factors like a good driving record.

China is also strengthening of capital standards, working on the same January 1, 2016, deadline as Europe’s Solvency II. It hopes its standard, known as C-ROSS, will become a template for emerging markets:

The new standard splits “supervisable” risks that regulators are good at addressing from the ones better handled by market mechanisms.

The supervisable risks are split between quantifiable ones, like insurance risk, and unquantifiable ones, like reputation risk. Another class of supervisable risks is control risk. For emerging economies like China’s, Huang said, it is even more important to watch how companies control their risks. Good risk management may result in a reduction in regulatory capital requirement, and poor risk management can result in a capital add-on of up to 40%.

There’s also a systemic risk element, which requires systemically important insurers to set aside more capital.”

The I.I.I. is drafting a white paper about global capital standards to be published later this year. I.I.I. President Robert Hartwig gave a presentation that covered global insurance issues (and quite a bit else) late last year.

June is Pride month and our annual round-up of the latest insurance news around the LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender) community takes on added significance with today’s U.S. Supreme Court decision on same-sex marriage.

The Supreme Court decision in Obergefell v Hodges means that the U.S. Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage in all 50 states. This has a number of implications for health, life, and auto insurance.

For example, health and life benefits that currently exist in states that recognize same-sex marriage will–once the law goes into effect–extend to all states.

Some of these benefits include: coverage of a same-sex spouse and children under health insurance plans; equal tax treatment of health insurance premiums for married gay couples; and recognition of a spouse for survivor benefits, including social security and life insurance.

For auto insurance offerings, too, this means that LGBT customers who are married will be entitled to the married rate, regardless of where they live.

Esurance, one of the first car insurers to extend the married rate to LGBT customers, points to what equality means for auto insurance in a just-issued press release here.

For LGBT couples who are married or are planning to get married, Esurance offers the following advice:

In addition to saving money with the married rate, married couples in states newly recognizing same-sex marriage can be identified as a spouse on their partner’s insurance policy. This will allow them to receive additional benefits on that policy such as coverage while driving a rental or borrowed car.

Until the ruling goes into effect in individual states, Esurance will continue to extend its married rate to either married gay couples, domestic partners or those in civil unions—even in states that have yet to recognize same-sex marriage. Something it has done since 2011.”

Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) chief actuary James Lynch on an innovative actuarial approach.

It was a record-breaking rainy day in Colorado Springs when I attended a panel last month describing a new climate index the actuarial community is introducing.

The 1.58 inches of rain that fell May 19 almost doubled the previous record for that day. The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)–a joint effort between the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), the American Academy of Actuaries, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries–is intended to monitor how often extreme events – blistering heat, shivering cold, record winds and rain – strike 12 regions in North America.

It addresses an interesting conundrum about insurance and climate change. Given that the climate is changing – though quite a few in the industry dispute that – how can insurance incorporate the change into pricing?

The ACI, which will be introduced later this year, tries to address that. It will measure how many severe events occur every quarter. Since catastrophes are an important component of claim costs, changes in the long-term trend can affect insurance prices.

As I wrote for the CAS:

The index is an educational tool that could help pricing actuaries incorporate long-term trends into their mathematical models; it could also help actuaries and others working in enterprise risk management by quantifying the risk in a subtle, long-term trend.”

Insurance prices are famously based on historical data, trended forward. The index would help show whether extreme events are becoming more or less common, and actuaries could trend this information forward to set rates.

Actuaries have been working on the index for a couple of years. Historical data has shown that over the past few years, the frequency of extremely hot days has increased, while the frequency of extremely cold days has decreased. The overall ACI climbed from the 1990s on, though it appears to have leveled off in recent years.

In its Facts and Statistics section, the I.I.I. gives comprehensive snapshots about catastrophes, both in the United States and worldwide.

Gen Y customers–or Millennials–have expressed a sharp increase in satisfaction with their car insurance compared to other generations, according to the just-released J.D. Power 2015 U.S. Auto Insurance Study.

The study examines customer satisfaction in five factors: interaction; price; policy offerings; billing and payment; and claims.

Overall customer satisfaction with their auto insurer reached an all-time high of 818 on a 1,000-point scale, an improvement of 8 index points from 2014.

Satisfaction among Gen Y customers increased by 21 points—the biggest increase compared with the other generations. Satisfaction among Gen X customers was up 6 points, and among Boomers by 4 points, while Pre-Boomers were less satisfied (-3 points).

Improved interactions had the greatest impact on overall customer satisfaction and were also the largest contributor to the year-over-year improvement, the JD Power survey found.

Interaction satisfaction among Gen Y customers came in at 827, an increase of 20 points from 2014.

Customer interaction preferences are changing. Gen Y’s preference to interact exclusively via digital self-service (Web or mobile) increased to 27 percent in 2015, up from 21 percent in 2011.

A similar preference to interact via Web or mobile is true of other generations: Gen X (23 percent vs. 19 percent in 2011); Boomers (12 percent vs. 10 percent); and Pre-Boomers (6 percent vs. 4 percent).

However, auto insurers need to have their websites ready to resolve customer service issues.

The survey found that among the interaction channels, satisfaction with the website experience receives the lowest average score, most notably among Gen Y customers (816, compared with 826 for Gen X, 841 for Boomers and 861 for Pre-Boomers).

JD Power noted that while customers across all generations are able to use online self-service for basic tasks such as making a payment and gathering information about their account, they also need to be able to resolve more complex issues online.

Still, some activities are better performed through personal interactions, J.D. Power noted.

For example, when it comes to discussing price changes, one-quarter (25 percent) of Gen Y customers would rather talk to someone in person or over the phone, and 23 percent indicate they prefer in person or over the phone rather than the website channel when they have questions about their policy coverage.

The Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.) has some must-read facts and statistics on auto insurance here.

A California Labor Commission ruling that an Uber driver is a company employee, not an independent contractor may dampen fears that the on-demand economy spells the end for workers compensation, liability and health insurance. At least for now.

As reported by numerous news outlets, here and here, the decision out of California – though it applies to a single driver – could significantly increase costs for the ride-sharing business if it is copied by other states and in other cases.

It could also have potential implications for other segments of the economy important to property/casualty insurers.

As the New York Times reports:

The classification of freelancers is in dispute across a number of industries, including at other transportation companies. And the debate is set to escalate as the number of online companies and apps like Uber and others rises.”

The ruling, which commentators say could hurt Uber’s $40 billion-plus valuation, orders Uber to pay Barbara Berwick, $4,152 in expenses for the time she worked as an Uber driver last year.

Here are a couple of key excerpts from the California Labor Commission decision:

Plaintiffs’ work was integral to Defendants’ business. Defendants are in business to provide transportation services to passengers. Plaintiff did the actual transporting of those passengers. Without drivers such as Plaintiff, Defendants’ business would not exist.”

And:

Defendants hold themselves as nothing more than a neutral technological platform, designed simply to enable drivers and passengers to transact the business of transportation. The reality, however, is that Defendants are involved in every aspect of the operation.”

In response to the ruling (which it has appealed) Uber stated:

The California Labor Commission’s ruling is non-binding and applies to a single driver. Indeed it is contrary to a previous ruling by the same commission, which concluded in 2012 that the driver ‘performed services as an independent contractor, and not as a bona fide employee.’ Five other states have also come to the same conclusion.”

Potential insurance issues arising out of the on-demand or sharing economy are a recurring topic of conversation these days.

In a recent presentation I.I.I. president Dr. Robert Hartwig noted that traditional insurance will often not cover a worker engaged in offering labor or resources through these on-demand platforms.

For example, private passenger auto insurance generally won’t cover you while driving for Uber and a homeowners insurance policy won’t cover a homeowner for anything other than occasional rents of their property.

Also, Dr. Hartwig said: “Unless self-procured, on-demand workers (independent contractors) will generally have no workers comp recourse if injured on the job.”

A new report from ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warns that the credit ratings of U.S. financial services companies could be vulnerable to cyber risks in future.

In its analysis, S&P says:

Although the many successful cyber-attacks have not yet resulted in any changes in Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ ratings on financial services companies, we view cyber-security as an emerging risk that we believe has the potential to pose a higher credit risk to financial services firms in the future.”

And:

It’s not difficult to envisions scenarios in which criminal or state-sponsored cyber-attacks (for credit implications, we don’t differentiate the sources of intrusion) would result in significant economic effects, business interruption, theft, or reputational risk.”

S&P goes on to explain that while cyber attacks can result in losses, and possible market disruptions, so far they have not resulted in negative rating actions because the exposure of targeted companies has been contained by their own financial wherewithal and to some extent insurance programs.

Nevertheless, the damage to reputation, brand, or competitive position may likely only truly be known in the years ahead.

S&P notes that threat alone does not determine rating responses and threat risk varies by sector:

Our credit opinion takes a balanced view incorporating other related factors, including how susceptible a firm’s competitive position would be to a cyber attack, the effectiveness of its response plan, and what is the firm’s financial flexibility, liquidity, and capitalization regarding its ability to replenish capital post-event.

While all financial services companies targeted by major data breaches have emerged intact, S&P says it is increasingly wary about the persistence of cyber attacks and what that might mean for consumer confidence to engage in commerce with the brand going forward.

S&P says it views the threat for the insurance industry overall as medium, albeit risks for health insurers are higher. Adequate/strong enterprise risk management programs and the very strong capitalization of insurers are some of the offsetting risk factors.

While the cyber insurance market is still emerging, S&P expects premiums to more than double to $10 billion in the next five to 10 years from $2.5 billion now.

Hat tip to Insurance Journal which reports on this story here.

 

As South Korean authorities step up efforts to stop the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, from spreading further, the president of the World Bank Jim Yong Kim has warned that the next global pandemic could be far deadlier than any experienced in recent years.

Speaking in Frankfurt earlier this week, Dr Kim said Ebola revealed the shortcomings of international and national systems to prevent, detect and respond to infectious disease outbreaks.

The next pandemic could move much more rapidly than Ebola, Dr Kim noted:

The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed an estimated 25 million people in 25 weeks. Bill Gates asked researchers to model the effect of a Spanish Flu-like illness on the modern world, and they predicted a similar disease would kill 33 million people in 250 days.”

It should come as no surprise that in a 2013 global survey, insurance industry executives said a global pandemic was their biggest worry, Dr Kim added.

The Financial Times blog The World points to World Bank estimates that a pandemic could kill tens of millions and wipe out between 5 to 10 percent of GDP of the global economy,

Meanwhile, South Korea is experiencing an outbreak of MERS second in size only to that in Saudi Arabia, where it originated in 2012, with 10 dead and 122 confirmed cases so far. Some 3,000 people are reported to have been quarantined to-date.

A Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics blog post points to the potential economic impact of MERS, noting that South Korea’s $30 billion tourism industry would bear the brunt. Analysts predict the outbreak could knock off anywhere from 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points from South Korea’s annual GDP growth.

Back to that 2013 insurance survey conducted by Towers Watson. Over 30,000 votes were cast and industry execs ranked global pandemic as their most important extreme risk in the long term.

I.I.I. has facts and statistics on mortality risk here.

We’re reading a lot about the dangers of heat waves and drought.

Aon Benfield’s latest Global Catastrophe Recap report highlights the exceptional heat wave that impacted India from May 21-31, killing at least 2,500.

This is one of the highest death tolls on record for heat-related casualties, Aon notes.

The states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha (Orissa) were worst affected by temperatures that reached 48.0˚C (118˚F) in several areas. Temperatures were so hot that roads literally melted in some areas.

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An opinion piece in the New York Times over the weekend spoke more to the deadly risks of heat and humidity.

Closer to home the ongoing severe drought conditions across much of the Western United States, with a particular emphasis on California, continue to exact an economic toll.

Aon cites a study conducted by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences on behalf of the California state government that concluded that total 2015 statewide economic losses from the drought will top $2.7 billion.

Including damage from neighboring states, the overall total loss will rise to at least $3 billion.

Heat waves and drought can cause losses in many lines of insurance, according to Munich Re. Many losses are unseen, and the result of secondary events, making it difficult to assess the extent of losses involved.

For example, losses to the agriculture industry can run into the billions of dollars in drought years as harvest failures lead to multi-peril crop insurance claims and livestock losses may result from shortage of feed and heat-related stress. Long dry periods also create ideal conditions for promoting the outbreak and spread of wildfires.

In 2011 Texas suffered a severe drought and overall and insured wildfire losses in that state were also the highest ever recorded, Munich Re explains.

Heat waves have also been linked to an increased risk of mortality and heat-related stress with the potential to impact health and life insurance.

I.I.I. provides facts and statistics on droughts and heat waves here and a useful backgrounder on crop insurance here.

More than 6.6 million homes on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at risk of hurricane-driven storm surge with a total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of nearly $1.5 trillion.

The latest annual analysis from CoreLogic finds that the Atlantic Coast has more than 3.8 million homes at risk of storm surge in 2015 with a total projected reconstruction cost value of $939 billion, while the Gulf Coast has just under 2.8 million homes at risk and nearly $549 billion in potential exposure.

Which states have the highest total number of properties at risk?

Six states—Florida, Louisiana, New York, New Jersey, Texas and Virginia—account for more than three-quarters of all at-risk homes across the United States. Florida has the highest total number of properties at various risk levels (2.5 million), followed by Louisiana (769,272), New York (464,534), New Jersey (446,148), Texas (441, 304) and Virginia (420,052).

But if you rank the states by the highest total projected reconstruction costs in 2015, the top five are: Florida ($491.1 billion), New York ($177.4 billion), Louisiana ($162.1 billion), New Jersey ($126.8 billion) and Virginia ($91.1 billion).

CoreLogic makes the point that even though Louisiana has the second highest number of homes at risk to storm surge in 2015, only one-quarter are in the extreme or very high storm surge category, due in large part to the upgrade and expansion of levees in the state in the 10 years since Hurricane Katrina.

As Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard risk scientist for CoreLogic says:

The number of hurricanes each year is less important than the location of where the next hurricane will come ashore. It only takes one hurricane that pushes storm surge into a major metropolitan area for the damage to tally in the billions of dollars. With new home construction, and any amount of sea-level rise, the number of homes at risk of storm surge damage will continue to increase.”

CoreLogic’s analysis comes as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) debuts experimental storm surge watch and warning graphics for the 2015 hurricane season:

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Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property in the event of a hurricane. While most coastal residents can remain in their homes and stay safe from a storm’s winds, evacuations are generally needed to keep people safe from storm surge, the NHC says.

It’s important to note that many properties located outside designated FEMA flood zones are still at risk for storm surge damage.

As CoreLogic reminds us, homeowners who live outside the FEMA flood zones frequently do not carry flood insurance, given that there is no mandate to do so, and therefore may not be aware of the potential risk storm surge poses to their properties.

Data in the full CoreLogic report can be found here.

Check out I.I.I. facts and statistics on flood insurance here.

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